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No, I am not back to playing MAA, but Scarlettolivia asked me for a quick calculation on the odds for the Doom lockboxes. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but I started with the following assumptions: 32 days, 5 boxes per day if you can do the tasks and another 2.15 on average from daily spin (as calculated in a blog from Scarlett).

For the odds, I started from my previous table (have a look at my blog posts about lockbox maths if you want more details).

The table below reads as follows:

  • days show the number of days you will play and complete the tasks (leading to 7.15 boxes on average)
  • exp boxes = days x 7.15
  • odds = probability of getting the 8 unique covers from the expected nb of boxes.


Days Exp. Boxes Odds of success
1 7.2 0.0%
2 14.3 0.0%
3 21.5 0.0%
4 28.6 0.0%
5 35.8 0.0%
6 42.9 0.0%
7 50.1 0.0%
8 57.2 0.0%
9 64.4 0.0%
10 71.5 0.0%
11 78.7 0.1%
12 85.8 0.6%
13 93.0 1.4%
14 100.1 2.9%
15 107.3 4.3%
16 114.4 6.8%
17 121.6 10.0%
18 128.7 12.3%
19 135.9 16.5%
20 143.0 21.2%
21 150.2 26.8%
22 157.3 30.9%
23 164.5 37.8%
24 171.6 45.2%
25 178.8 49.9%
26 185.9 57.2%
27 193.1 64.3%
28 200.2 70.8%
29 207.4 74.5%
30 214.5 80.2%
31 221.7 85.1%
32 228.8 87.7%


Conclusion: any daily player has nearly 90% chance of success. The chances decrease steadily with the days when you cannot play. Below 25 days, your odds drop to 50%.

Good luck!

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