No, I am not back to playing MAA, but Scarlettolivia asked me for a quick calculation on the odds for the Doom lockboxes.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I started with the following assumptions: 32 days, 5 boxes per day if you can do the tasks and another 2.15 on average from daily spin (as calculated in a blog from Scarlett).
For the odds, I started from my previous table (have a look at my blog posts about lockbox maths if you want more details).
The table below reads as follows:
- days show the number of days you will play and complete the tasks (leading to 7.15 boxes on average)
- exp boxes = days x 7.15
- odds = probability of getting the 8 unique covers from the expected nb of boxes.
Days Exp. Boxes Odds of success
1 7.2 0.0%
2 14.3 0.0%
3 21.5 0.0% …
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This is it, dear Wikia users: I quit the game.
I have started playing over a year and a half ago (just before spec ops 1), and have been obsessed with this game ever since, but lately, it was more work than fun. I have been feeling it for a while and it became crystal clear when I picked up another game (fire emblem on 3DS > excellent!) and was surpised at how much fun I was having...
The best/worst thing to happen to me was to discover this wiki about a year ago:
- I was not alone anymore: other grown-ups were also spending hours every day grinding CPs to buy alternate PJs for their favourite superhero. It made me feel a whole lot better wasting my time knowing that there are lots of others like me
- I learned to play more efficiently, so I had f…
The last patchnotes revealed that the odds of getting a cover were influenced by a special mechanism designed to avoid too many duplicates.
This makes my previous blog post on the topic obsolete, as I had assumed that you could theoretically get an infinite amount of dups.
The additional rule that we did not know about was:
"You have a chance to receive duplicate covers until you have received a number of duplicates equal to the number of unique covers you currently own..."
I understand it as such:
1st cover will never be a duplicate (duh!)
2nd cover: you will not have more than 1 duplicate (your amount of unique cover before getting the second one) > max 2 covers to get the 2nd unique, which is to say that you are sure to get the second cover w…
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A quick post this time. With the new PVP season that just started, we have a chance to recruit Elektra via lockboxes. She looks pretty cool (unremovable bleeding from every one of her moves? Not bad...). But what are your odds of getting her for free?
I will be using the same assumptions and calculations as in this previous blog post.
But some quick reminders never hurt:
- I assume that you will open boxes 10 by 10, all the time. It is the best way to get covers (click on the link above for the full discussion)
- I assume that there is no "trick" that can influence the odds (waiting for big stacks of boxes, or on the contrary, never opening more than 10-20 per day, or spending 1G before opening a batch...). No one has ever convincingly demonstrate…
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Here I go again, trying to make sense out of the probabilities that have been thrown at us, and understand our chances of getting the staff at which cost.
Again: I am not a statistician, just someone who likes Excel and used to like probabilities in his student days. I might be wrong, so challenge me if you think you know better.
Based on what I read on the wiki, I assume that the PVP roulette has the following odds:
- 20% chance of getting a feather
- 20% of getting a caducite
- 20% chance of getting a nugget
I will assume in the calculations that you will either do your 5 daily fights (getting 5 nuggets and a roulette spin) or not play at all for the day (so, I do not calculate days where you get 3 nuggets and no spin).
bad news, based on my mo…
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