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CONCLUSION:

so...we were out to test 2 things: how reliable was the odds we got from reading codes, and whether certain spots yielded more interesting items, in particular LE

regarding question nb1:

items assumed odds logged
LE 0.55% 0.98%
PVP 7.27% 7.12%
CP 5.45% 5.23%
Others 86.73% 86.67%

So, the logs confirm the odds we had guessed. LE seems a little higher, but I would put it down to people reporting a little more the batches of 10 that yielded LE (since the exercise focused on LE showing up more in certain spots). In any case, the odds for LE are very low. But since most people open north of 200 boxes, a lot of players will get at least 1 LE item, and quite a few players will get more.

The only piece of odds in the code that was not confirmed is that the boxes were supposed to yield a small quantity of unstable ISO-8, which no-one reported (at least, not that I saw).

question nb 2:

tougher. it would be tempting to think that slot 9 (with 4 LEs) is better. But with 15 LEs to be spread over 9 slots, it is not uncommon to get slots with 0 and slots with 4. A quick simulation showed that this would happen in about 40% of cases.

Basically, what we see is what you could expect if it was purely random.

Thx to all the ones who gave data and to Olivia for organising this. This is one more hint that PD is rather straightforward in its usage of probabilities, and not using some complex modifiers just to screw with the players' head.




As you know, some nerds folks here in the wiki like to do things related to math. Or a little more specifically, math related to odds of things.

Here in the comment section (which I can't seem to link directly to), Titeuf has provided a raw weight table based solely on the weight of drops. We are both convinced that there are other mechanism that changes the odds of certain item being dropped from the box. We don't know what it is, but we'd like to find out. Here is where you guys come in.

If you observe carefully, when you open lockboxes by 10, the comic book cover ALWAYS APPEAR ON THE 5TH slot from the left.
Here is a screen shot borrowed from OmarFPG

wsmi.png



Hypothesis:
When opened by 10, there are certain slot(s) dedicated to specific drop table just as the 5th slot is dedicated to the comic cover.

How do we proof/counter-proof this:
Please provide in the comments section, which slot(s) do you receive command points, PVP bonus items and LE weapons. We need a rather large data sample to draw a conclusion. I've dried up my task thus I can only go at 1 log per 2 days. Any help at all is appreciated.


Owner Slot 1 Slot 2 Slot 3 Slot 4 Slot 6 Slot 7 Slot 8 Slot 9 Slot 10
OmarFPG CP Scepter
Docbobm CP CP
Docbobm PVP PVP PVP PVP
Regulus22 CP
Regulus22 PVP
Regulus22 PVP PVP PVP
Regulus22 PVP PVP
Regulus22 PVP PVP
Regulus22 PVP PVP PVP
Regulus22 PVP PVP
Ghost PVP
Ghost
Ghost PVP PVP PVP
Skarlarth Enchanted Crowbar
Skarlarth
NINJAelectricsword PVP
Rezarel
Rezarel
Rezarel CP
Dchev1 PVP PVP
Northstar Runner CP CP
Northstar Runner PVP
Northstar Runner PVP Enchanted Crowbar
CrypTick Grey
CrypTick Grey PVP
Potkettleblack
Potkettleblack CP
Potkettleblack PVP
JacksRevenge74 CP PVP
Jacobkoopa
NINJAelectricsword
Northstar Runner PVP
Northstar Runner
JacksRevenge74 PVP PVP
JacksRevenge74 CP PVP CP
JacksRevenge74 CP
Camilleopard CP
Inspector Javert
Skarlarth PVP CP
Skarlarth
Potkettleblack CP
MGeffro PVP
Kaeru22 CP Advanced Idea Scepter
Docbobm
Docbobm CP Enchanted Crowbar CP
Docbobm
Docbobm
MGeffro CP
Skarlarth PVP PVP
CrypTick Grey PVP
Potkettleblack PVP
Potkettleblack CP
Jacobkoopa
OmarFPG PVP
MGeffro
MGeffro PVP
Scarlettolivia CP
Scarlettolivia
Scarlettolivia
Scarlettolivia
AscendedEvincar
Jacobkoopa CP PVP
Jacobkoopa
Jacobkoopa CP CP
AscendedEvincar
AscendedEvincar
AscendedEvincar CP
Skarlarth CP
NINJAelectricsword PVP CP
Dchev1 CP CP
Dchev1 PVP CP
Dchev1 PVP PVP
Inspector Javert
Northstar Runner PVP
MGeffro PVP
NINJAelectricsword Advanced Idea PVP CP
Skarlarth
Skarlarth CP
Skarlarth
Skarlarth PVP
Potkettleblack PVP
Skarlarth CP
Skarlarth
Skarlarth PVP
Northstar Runner CP PVP
Dchev1 PVP PVP
Camilleopard PVP
Camilleopard CP
Camilleopard
OmarFPG PVP Scepter PVP PVP
JacksRevenge74 PVP PVP
Tahna CP PVP CP
Tahna CP
Tahna
MGeffro Advanced Idea Enchanted Crowbar
Northstar Runner CP CP
Potkettleblack CP PVP
Potkettleblack PVP CP
Potkettleblack PVP CP
Potkettleblack CP CP
Potkettleblack CP
Potkettleblack PVP
Inspector Javert PVP
Skarlarth CP CP PVP
Skarlarth CP
Skarlarth CP CP
Jacobkoopa PVP
NINJAelectricsword CP
NINJAelectricsword
Rezarel CP
Rezarel
Rezarel PVP CP
Rezarel
Rezarel PVP
Rezarel CP CP
Scarlettolivia PVP PVP
JacksRevenge74
JacksRevenge74
JacksRevenge74 PVP
JacksRevenge74 CP
JacksRevenge74 PVP
JacksRevenge74 Scepter
JacksRevenge74 PVP PVP CP
JacksRevenge74 CP PVP
Jacobkoopa CP CP
Northstar Runner Enchanted Crowbar
Skarlarth PVP CP
OmarFPG PVP PVP
Inspector Javert
Dchev1 CP CP
NINJAelectricsword PVP
JacksRevenge74
NINJAelectricsword
Electroshock05 CP
Inspector Javert CP CP
Skarlarth CP
NINJAelectricsword CP CP
Northstar Runner CP
OmarFPG PVP
Scarlettolivia PVP Scepter
Jacobkoopa
MGeffro PVP PVP
Skarlarth CP CP
Skarlarth PVP
Radioboys PVP
JacksRevenge74 PVP CP PVP Enchanted Crowbar
JacksRevenge74 PVP
OmarFPG
JacksRevenge74 PVP
JacksRevenge74 CP PVP
Bestaimz PVP
Bestaimz PVP
Bestaimz CP PVP
MGeffro
Scarlettolivia CP
NINJAelectricsword CP CP PVP PVP
Radioboys CP PVP
JacksRevenge74
Skarlarth PVP PVP
Skarlarth PVP
Skarlarth
Bestaimz PVP
Skarlarth PVP
NINJAelectricsword PVP
Jacobkoopa
JacksRevenge74 CP
MGeffro PVP
Skarlarth
Scarlettolivia PVP CP
NINJAelectricsword Crowbar PVP PVP




Total LB: 1690
Summary:

Slot 1 Slot 2 Slot 3 Slot 4 Slot 6 Slot 7 Slot 8 Slot 9 Slot 10
PVP 15
CP 7
Others 148
PVP 10
CP 9
Others 149
LE Gear 2
PVP 5
CP 9
Others 155
LE Gear 1
PVP 11
CP 7
Others 151
LE Gear 1
PVP 11
CP 13
Others 149
LE Gear 3
PVP 7
CP 9
Others 154
PVP 12
CP 5
Others 152
LE Gear 1
PVP 22
CP 12
Others 132
LE Gear 4
PVP 14
CP 11
Others 142
LE Gear 3


Total:
PVP:109
CP:80
LE:15
Others:1326


You may add to the table above by clicking here, or just add them in the comments section.
Thanks!

PS: PLEASE MAKE A NEW COMMENT FOR NEW SETS OF LBS, IT'S EASIER FOR ME TO KEEP TRACK THAT WAY

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