Extreme language to follow, but hey, it's my blog. It doesn't have any useful information for you guys outside of "DO YOUR 5 DAILY PVP WINS"
This is the one LE item that I decided against and heavily, HEAVILY wished I could take back that decision.
Today, that has changed.
I FINALLY GOT THE AXE FROM THE PVP ROULLETTE!
I've been trying SO damn hard to get it. Forcing my AFK setup into 100% losses (4 Spider Sense Injectors does a fine job of that) just so I'd be sure I'd have EASY easy matches to take on those first 5 of the day.
Usually what I do with PVP tournaments is get 60 battles within the first few days, not caring abour winning (because my AFK team is pretty nice) and then letting my AFK win frequency carry me to nearly the Suit's levels in %. With the Warbringer Axe on the roulette that would be a bad idea. I'd have 3 maybe 4 days of roulettes, and then I wouldn't touch PVP again (because I don't like to level... I know I know "sandbagger" whatever). So I resolved to change my strategy to make getting that roulette as easy as possible.
I set my agent up with 4 SSI (now unattainable), with an un-ISO'd regular suit Cyclops, and Luke Cage (the new 2 worst characters since Night Crawler got a buff). With GUARANTEED losses in AFK (cause who'd lose a 3 on 2?) I was certain to have easy fights in the morning to tackle that roulette. But I wanted to be doubly sure during the chaos that is the first few days. So I took my 5 wins. And then I purposely lost 5 battles setting me back to 0 ELO gained. Setting me to have even easier opponents the next day.
I did this every day since the tournament started. While surfing the Warbringer Axe page I noticed someone ask for a % expected chance to get the WBA if they got every roulette in the tourney. It was, I think, PotKettleBlack who crunched some numbers and basically came back with a 2/3 chance of getting the LE item without using gold, if you focused on getting the roulettes. I'd get some gold sometimes. I'd get Armory items others (some I'd use in my set up, some I wouldn't). A few days it would eek past the WBA by one spot, other's it'd stop right infront of it. It was aggravating.
Knowing that there is no way to truely get any item you want from the roulette 100% I was fully prepared to use Gold. I WANTED this item. I wanted it BAD. A few days ago I reached the 50% point. 50% of people would have gotten the axe had they done the same thing I had by that point. I had crossed into the realm of the unlucky. Not only that the tournament was getting close to ending. Only 16 days left, and after my experience with the WBA I don't want to miss out on any FREE LE item. (I refused to play PSP S1 because it wasn't certain DP would be rereleased afterwards, and S2 I didn't care to place any higher than gold because I thought it'd be too hard [big mistake there] and missed out on one of the better customized counter weapons) So now I'm worried about getting the axe, AND maintaining a top 10% rating.
Now we come to today. 12 days left on the PVP clock, and I've resolved to forgo the PVP LE for my shot at the Warbringers. I have Game Grumps playing in the background as I go through the ridiculously simple PVP battles. And then comes the roulette battle. It's not like it was an epic ".... a random ridiculously hard battle. I MUST WIN, AAAGH!" No, it was simple just as the rest, but then the roulette came up. I had my hopes. After doing Magneto's roulette so many times I've gotten to the point where I have a ~75% accuracy rating for picking the spot the roulette will land on. And this time, I saw the item layout and my mind said "It's either going to be These Crystals, or the WBA" The roulette spun, and went around the 9 squares twice. now having all 3 PVP Armory items between it and the WBA it started to slow. My stomach dropped. The Balanced crystal was the first one to pass. Then it was the single Gold and CP spots, but my gut told me that it wouldn't be those... and it wasn't. Now on the second row, I have the Defense crystal, the Offense Crystal, and the WBA. 1 I'd dislike, 1 I'd live with, and the other I'd jump for joy for. The slot is now moving really slow, but it passes over the Defense. At these speeds, my mind and gut tell me that it's a MUCH higher chance to go 1 more spots than it is to stop where it is. A small smirk crosses my face before it's even moved on. I know intuitively I'm going to get my prize. The slot stops on the Warbringer's Axe, flashes, and brings up the "Accept" window. It takes about 3 seconds to sink in that I had finally done it. I got the weapon I've longed for for so long.
I spend atleast a minute doing fist pumps, with muffled "YES!"s passing through my smiling teeth. I had to tell SOMEONE. My immediate thought was "THE FORUMS!", but I can't do that as I've been IP banned since they connected the Marvel EXP rewards. So I thought I'd come to here... where I heard the 2/3 chance statistic and rolled with it.
Moral of the story: Don't let the small things get to you, and keep your eyes on the prize.
WIN THOSE 5 DAILY PVP BATTLES!!!