Obtaining a lockbox hero is mostly a matter of chance, but it generally helps to collect a lot of lockboxes. Since the introduction of the bonus bar, it has become much more transparent how to obtain the hero, but many will still find the process tedious and frustrating.
Below you will find a few quicktables that allow you to look up how many more lockboxes you will probably need, in order to obtain the hero.
It is assumed that you open the lockboxes 10 at a time, ensuring 1 comic per 10 lockboxes. Opening the lockboxes 1 by 1 may on occasion give you higher returns, but will on average only give you only 1 comic per 14.3 lockboxes.
It is also assumed that the bonus bar ensures that after X duplicates you are sure to get a new comic, and does NOT alter the probabilities on any other way. After every new comic, the bonus bar resets and you get to start collecting duplicates again.
NOTE: In the patch notes it states that each duplicate decreases the chance of getting a duplicate. Unfortunately it does not state by how much. Since these enhanced probabilities are unknown, the numbers below reflect the most pessimistic case in which duplicates only make a difference once the bar is full.
Getting a hero with at least 50% probability
How to use these tables:
- Check how many comics you have collected so far
- Check how many duplicates (Dupes) you have collected since you last new comic (the bonus bar automatically fills one piece of the bar, any additional green pieces represent duplicates you opened)
It does not matter how many duplicates you have received in total, only the ones you received AFTER the last new comic matter for the probabilities.
This table will give you the number of lockboxes you still need that will give you at least a 50% chance to obtain all the comics and thus the hero.
|Duplicates since last new comic -->||0||1||2||3||4||5||6||7|
Getting a hero with at least 75% probability
Use this table exactly as the table above.
This table gives the number of lockboxes needed to ensure a chance of at least 75% of obtaining the lockbox hero. Input is the number of comics you have collected so far and the number of duplicates you have obtained since your last new comic.
Duplicates since last new comic -->
Getting a hero with at least 90% probability
Getting a hero with absolute certainty
The (theoretical) probabilities before the bonus bar
To give you an idea of the effect of the bonus bar on probabilties, these are the number of lockboxes one would need, in order to obtain the last comic if the bonus bar did not exist. Since it does not matter how many duplicates you have, unlucky players have to open a lot of lockboxes, and will unable to get the hero without spending a LOT of gold.
Lockboxes needed to obtain 8th comic with 50% probabilty: 60
Lockboxes needed to obtain 8th comic with 75% probabilty: 110
Lockboxes needed to obtain 8th comic with 90% probability: 180
Lockboxes needed to obtain 8th comic with 99% probability: 350
(Keep in mind: these are the number of boxes needed AFTER obtaining the 7th comic.)
HOWEVER, if we can believe the patch notes, the bonus bar has always been working in the background and such extreme cases did not exist for the past lockbox heroes either.