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  • Meisterjohnny

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/15czWHWtJqw30XFHkuRImV1zddAGoPbnqg60NmN9T9cs/viewform

    Season 15 just ended, and I'd been playing daily for the lockboxes. Taskmaster was won on the (5 May, Cinco De Mayo). Next season, we would expect to see some changes in the PVP tournament structure; nonetheless historical precedent in understanding statistics will help us a lot in deciphering what these mean and reforging optimum strategies. 


    http://avengersalliance.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Meisterjohnny/The_PVP_Guide_of_Statistics, is my first blog post. Apologies for the lack of explanations, they will be added as I have time to write them. As you realized, level is a problematic factor. Two ways can correct for it. 


    The idea is that if levels 260-299 are…




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  • Meisterjohnny

    Intro Thank you to the 260 of you who contributed your data to our collective PVP stat guide. We will be examining it to derive sound, statistically driven conclusions.

    I want to personally thank PKB, Caslandr, Leojms, Andy (FB) and Agent Slee (FB) amongst many others who have helped to conceptualize and crystalize this project.

    Statistical Primer Here are some basic stat primers. 

    1. We build a model of the world. 
    2. We test it with data.
    3. We refine the model according to the result.
    4. We use these results to predict outcomes.
    5. Multi-variable regression is one way to test how closely the model resembles reality.

    Nitty Gritty


    1. We build a model of the world. Rating is a dependent variable because it depends on other variables. What affects ratings in Marvel worl…

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  • Meisterjohnny

    Dear fellow Marvel Avengers: Addict,

    Wouldn't you like to know the statistical effect of switching hero uniforms? Is attack truly the best PVP stat? Imagine what if we could statistically determine what drives PVP ratings over time. Basically everything that can be measured will be measured and regressed to determine its effect on rating throughout the season (I don't know how to do time-series regressions but I could ask around for help).

    Please click the link below to contribute 

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/15czWHWtJqw30XFHkuRImV1zddAGoPbnqg60NmN9T9cs/viewform.

    This will take less than 5 minutes I promise, and you will be glad you contributed! Knowledge is power. Power is winning.

    Hypotheses The first step is to build a hypothetical model …

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  • Meisterjohnny

    Here's a rough analysis trying to predict where the meta is going.

    Note I only started playing in Jan 1 2013, and I'm currently level 75. Thus lots of the information is credited from fellow Marvel friends, discussions, forums, and youtube videos.





    Date


    Meta


    mid 2012


    SMACK YOU SILLY. 1st gen Warmachine, Hulk




    Dec 2012


    THE META. P5 Emma Frost, WW2 Cap


    2012?


    NEED FOR SPEED AND COORDINATION. Blue Suit QS, Coulson’s revenge, Avengers Uniforms


    End 2012


    EVASION! FF Spidey + Nerf later


    Jan 2013


    PVP GAMECHANGERS: SoA, Warbringer Axe, Psylocke-Emma Counter, Demon Set


    Jan 2013?


    1HKO: Blaster Thor, Havok


    Feb 2013


    CLASS CHANGERS: Punisher, later OMS


    2013


    SHIELD MAKERS AND BREAKERS: Dr Strange, IW, Juggernaut, Shatterstar



    WE WILL STUN YOU 1: Captain Britain mass stun



    BIG CLA…
















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  • Meisterjohnny

    Spec Ops 16 brings a lot of interesting challenges, and it seems like the UISO spending is extremely high.

    12 Feb: Let's do some PKB math here: We still have 32 days left: that means (50+30 from allies)*32 = 2560 USIO. With daily spins, perhaps you could get say a conservative 60 UISO. Total: 2620 UISO.

    Now let's look at Mission run-throughs. Here is MGeffro's Incursion farming guide which is a good proxy for how many points we need to reach the boss. Even if you have 3 stars mastery in the mission, it makes sense to 3-bird the boss because Minibosses use 20 UISO but only give 3 score. Even 2 medium battles comes out ahead, 20 UISO for 4 score.

    User_blog:MGeffro/Incursions_farming


    Event Score
    Low threat 1
    Medium threat 2
    High threat 3
    Deploy 1
    Mini…





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