In October of 2013, Titeuf24 posted a wonderful blog post calculating the odds of obtaining the nth comic cover in m boxes, updating the old probabilities in light of the release of the new cover progress bar. In the release notes, the devs stated:
“You have a chance to receive duplicate covers until you have received a number of duplicates equal to the number of unique covers you currently own … However, each duplicate you receive REDUCES the chance you will get a duplicate on your next lockbox opening."
I was curious about the size of this increased chance. Several others on the wiki have suggested that one logical mechanism for this would be to only allow a single duplicate once per new cover. It has been shown repeatedly that this is not…Read more >