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Well, we're two days to the end of Spec Ops 6 now. In it's span, three more heroes were released for everyone: Psylocke, Wasp and Captain Britain. Also, Wolverine undered a major revision.

So, everybody are speculating: what'll be Spec Ops 7's needed Heroes? Instead of the usual approach, I tried to see some pattern using Statistics, to previse at least the amount of CP. After that, I analyzed for trends in the deployments, and then a synthesis combining both.

WARNING: Everything here is sheer speculation! Don't take this for certain, or at least don't blame me later for that.

Review

With the exception of Spec Ops 1 - that required 5-Star Mastery to unlock Mockingbird - every Spec Ops required a fight with an Epic Boss, so completion of all deployments are necessary. Spec Ops 6 had a new implementation, the Master of Magnetism side tasks, to get Lockboxes for recruiting Magneto. It also required a fight with a second Epic boss, with different deploys.

Let's take a look:

Special Operations Requirements CP Cost
Spec Ops 2 Colossus Icon 1Phoenix Icon 1Scarlet Witch Icon 1 161
Spec Ops 3 Black Panther Icon 1Gambit Icon 1Nightcrawler Icon 1Rogue Icon 1 318
Spec Ops 4 Daredevil Icon 1Gambit Icon 1Hercules Icon 1Quicksilver Icon 1 276
Spec Ops 5 Beast Icon 1Kitty Pryde Icon 1Storm Icon 1Wolverine Icon 1 261
Spec Ops 6 Tigra Icon 1Beast Icon 1Deadpool Icon 1Phoenix Icon 1Nightcrawler Icon 1 411

The Math

We can do a regression to see how the data behave. If anyone uses the R language for computational statistics, it's the "lm()" function.

The linear model gives an Intercept (b) of 152.5 and a Slope (a) of 44.3. With this, we can estimate the next value of the series, using the formula:

CP=ax+b

Using a = 44.3, b = 152.5, we can expect 418.3 CPs (419, rounding up) in Heroes for the next Spec Ops!

The Problems

We can calculate the p-value for this model to see if it's significant. Also, we can see the correlation (r) between the variables. And, this isn't a very good model: We have r = 0.6 and p=0.127. That means we can't eliminate the randomness.

Even if was significant, that doesn't mean that will remain like that. Doing these procedures are by no means different than viewing the lists of required heroes in the past and speculating. Speaking of which...

Speculations

I'll not spend much time and words here. Just a quick analysis and then off to waiting o/

  • So far, most of the deployments were affiliated with the X-Men. So it's not implausible to see at least half of the requirements being mutants.
  • Of the 16 characters, 4 appeared twice: Gambit, Beast, Phoenix and Nightcrawler.
    • Phoenix and Nightcrawler have more things in commom: they're both less-than-90 CP Heroes, and both are required for the Lockboxes sidequest, not the main Taskline.
  • Every Spec Ops required a new (at the time) hero: Scarlet Witch (SO2), Gambit and Rogue (SO3), Hercules and Quicksilver (SO4), Beast (SO5), and Tigra (SO6).
  • With the possible exception of SO6, every Spec Ops required a less-than-90 CP hero, which could be unpopular at the time: Colossus and Phoenix (SO2), Nightcrawler (SO3), Daredevil (SO4), Kitty Pryde (SO5), Nightcrawler and Phoenix (SO6, but arguable).
  • Spec Ops 6 required Deadpool, the older of the PVP Heroes. It also marked the first time that a less-than-90 CP hero wasn't required for the main Taskline.
  • No Spec Ops Hero was required as a deploy before.

So, with all of this in mind, I'll guess that the required Heroes for the next Spec Ops are...

  • For the main Taskline:
    • Cable Icon 1: Second PVP Hero
    • Wasp Icon 1: New 90 CP Hero
    • Captain Britain Icon 1: New 90 CP Hero
  • For the Sidequest:
    • Wolverine Icon 1: X-Men, revamped, second time
    • Colossus Icon 1: X-Men, second time (Kitty Pryde fits too).

This results in a total of 428/438 CPs. That's A LOT. For the new player, probably means spending money. For older players, perhaps some weeks of farming would net the desirable CP.

BUT, it fits in our equation. Actually, doing a new regression with this values improves it, giving a r = 0.73 and p = 0.03.

Conclusion

Speculating can be fun. I hope that no one (if anyone) that reads this think that this is certain, maybe because it has some numbers and signs on it. It could be Heroic Age Hawkeye, for all we know!

This was just something to pass time, and trying to see some patterns by different means than the usual ones.

Keep Calm and Farm Those CPs!

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