Why is our player base dropping? Here are some thoughts.
Device Death = Player Loss
Some percentage of Android devices are lost, stolen, reset, or destroyed every day. The way PD has designed this game, that should equal the "baseline" expected player base loss on a daily basis.
Two things work to counteract that loss
- Some people have discovered (likely due to this forum, but possibly on their own) that it is the Android ID value that identifies your game AND taken measures to back it up AND are willing/able to root a new device and restore that value to it counteract that rate.
- Some players (I am assuming a very low percentage, partly due to the next reason) that previously made significant progress and suffer device / account loss will be willing to start over.
Even combined, I believe this still nets to a negative player growth (aka player loss) on a daily basis.
Catchup Is Hard
Can you imagine starting with no knowledge or experience today? Remember how hard it was to get all the CP you needed? Remember how daunting of a task gathering all the heroes seemed when you first loaded up? Well, all the heroes releases that were staggered releases for us make that list that much more daunting for John Q. Newguy today. On top of that, there's up to 1080 extra CP he needs to get because he never got any of the PvP guys for free, and another 1200 from expired Special Ops.
If the "new player" is made to felt disempowered and ostracized without pumping E9t9 levels of currency into the game, it is not surprising that they instead go play the latest Flappy Bird or 2048 ripoff instead. Our own data seems to support that the player base skews toward GenX. For $8-$16 you can get an Android customized port of an awesome console game from our youth that will offer dozens to hundreds of hours of entertainment. How far does that same investment get you in MAA?
EU Freemium Ruling
I don't know how much impact this may have already had, but the EU has spanked Google for listing apps in the Play Store as "free" when they include in-app purchases. This will/(has?) reduce the exposure MAA gets in some markets. The "Top Free" section of the Play Store is powerful marketing, and this will (has?) go away. The "filter by free" will also exclude the app. This combo will reduce exposure in some markets.
Chicken vs. Egg (Developer Time vs. Revenue)
PD probably isn't experiencing the revenue stream they hoped from our flavor of the game. Therefore, they're not allocating resources to improving it.
PD isn't allocating resources to improving our flavor of the game. Therefore they are not generating much of a revenue stream from it.
Safe to say one of the two above statements is true. Which one? Nobody knows. It's hard to peel the onion and unmuddy the waters of all these other factors to conclusively prove the truth one way or the other. PD has an opinion, and it is the only one that matters, and it seems to be the former.